Newsgroups: lter.ced Path: LTERnet!root From: "Bruce P. Hayden" Subject: CED 2.7 Message-ID: <1993Jun30.185830.29449@lternet.washington.edu> Sender: root@lternet.washington.edu (Operator) Organization: Long Term Ecological Research Date: Wed, 30 Jun 1993 17:54:52 GMT ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *********** *********** ********** *** *** * * * * *** *** * * * * *** *** * * * * *** *** * ********* * * *** *** * * * * *** *** * * * * *** *** * * * * *** *** * * * * *** *** *********** *********** ********** *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** Vol.2 No.7 :::::: file name:CED2.7 :::::: July 1, 1993 ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** CED METADATA ---- CED is the Climate/Ecosystem Dynamics bulletin board of the LTER network. In CED, you will find exchanges of ideas, information, data, bibliographies,literature discussions, and a place to find experts within the LTER community. We are interested in both climate controls on ecosystems and ecosystem controls on climate. As this is an inter-disciplinary activity, we hope to provide things that you might not come across in your work at your LTER site. CED is a product of the LTER climate committee and contributions to CED for general e-mail release may be sent to either David Greenland of Andrews LTER [Greenlan@oregon.uoregon.edu] or to Bruce Hayden of the Virginia Coast Reserve LTER [bph@envsci.evsc.virginia.edu]. We expect that the scope of CED will evolve and reflect the interests of the contributors and users of this service. CED will be issued as the preparation work gets done (usually monthly). Back-issus of CED may be requested from Daniel Pommert [daniel@lternet.washington.edu] by the file name given in the masthead. Daniel can also add people to the CED mailing list. Feedback on CED from LTER scientists is welcome (non-$$$$ contributions also welcome.) For example, please forward citations of climate & ecosystem publications on your site. We are keeping a LTER wide bibliography on Climate/Ecosystem Dynamics that we pass on via E-mail. ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *** *** YMCA OF THE ROCKIES *** *** EL NINO WORKSHOP *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** LTER El Nino lovers will hold a workshop in Estes Park at the 1993 edition of the All Scientists Meeting this September (watch your e-mail for entry forms or you may pester your site data manager for the same). We will network the old fashioned, non-electronic but still eclectic way; we will facilitate shy people in talking to each another; and, we will promote, foster and encourage new work (perhaps a proposal) on El Nino and its ecosystem connections. All All-Scientists are welcome. If you have something to contribute and want a few minutes at the head table please let me know. In the last CED I sent out to two EL Nino Indexes. In this issue you will find an index of strength of the Southern Oscillation. With a little luck on everyone's part it will spur you on to look for an El Nino signal at your site. Even if you have only a small contribution, perhaps an overhead with a pregnant graph of a possible El Nino-LTER site connection bring it along. We can discuss it. Watch for details and supplemental information in the next two CEDs. ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *** *** SOI INDEX *** *** BY YEAR AND MONTH *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** The SOI Index is the difference in mean monthly pressures in mb between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti in the South Pacific. Missing data are indicated by a dot. Year Jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sept oct nov dec ann 1882 -1 -0.3 0.4 0 0.5 -1.2 -2.1 -2.8 -1.7 0 0.1 1 -0.59 1883 0.8 -1.3 -3.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 -1.2 0 -1 0.3 0.2 -2.2 -0.43 1884 -1.7 -1 0.9 -1 0.1 0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 -1.8 -0.46 1885 -2.2 0 0.6 0 -0.2 -1.2 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 -2 -1.6 0.6 -0.66 1886 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.8 1.6 0.667 1887 1.6 1.2 1 0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 -0.6 0.6 0.508 1888 -0.6 -0.3 -1.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.3 -1.6 -1 -1.1 -1.5 -1.4 -0.4 -1.1 1889 -3.5 -0.3 -3.4 0 -0.1 1.7 0.1 0 1.1 0.2 1.9 2.5 0.017 1890 2.6 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.8 0.3 0 -0.1 0.575 1891 2.1 -0.7 -1.3 0.4 0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -1 0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.28 1892 0.2 -1.5 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 % % % % % 1893 % % % % % % % % % % % % % 1894 % % % % % % % % % % % % % 1895 % % % % % % % % % % % % % 1896 0.7 1.1 -0.3 -0.1 -2.6 -2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -0.6 -1.3 -0.93 1897 -1.6 -1.1 -2.1 -1.4 -1.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0 0.1 -0.9 1.1 -0.63 1898 0.9 0.6 2 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.7 1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.575 1899 1.6 1 1.4 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 1.4 -0.5 0.208 1900 -1 -1 -3.2 -1.4 -0.6 1.9 1 0.6 -1.8 -2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.75 1901 -0.2 0.3 1 0.4 0 1.4 1.4 0.9 -1.7 -2.5 -1 -0.3 -0.03 1902 2.2 -0.4 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 -1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 0.008 1903 -1.3 -1.6 1.8 1.4 0.8 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.9 0.4 0 1.8 0.367 1904 1.8 2 1 2.4 0.7 -0.7 -1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -1.8 0.1 0.367 1905 -1.2 -2.5 -3.6 -3.3 -3 -2.5 -2 -1 -0.7 -0.8 -1.9 -1.9 -2.03 1906 -0.6 -1.2 % % % -0.4 0.5 1.4 1.9 0.8 1.9 % % 1907 % % % % % % % % % % % % % 1908 % % % % % % % % 2 0.7 0.1 -0.8 % 1909 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -1.1 0.1 1.6 1 0.8 0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.225 1910 0.6 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 1.7 2 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.233 1911 0.2 0.1 0.3 0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4 -0.61 1912 -1.4 -2.4 -1.2 -1.7 -1 -0.6 -0.2 -1 -0.5 -0.8 0.1 -1.2 -0.99 1913 -0.5 -0.8 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1 -0.73 1914 -0.7 0.2 1 % % % % % % -0.9 % % % 1915 % % % % % % % % % % -1.6 1 % 1916 0.6 -0.6 -1 0 0.4 0.6 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.592 1917 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.6 3.3 3.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.008 1918 1.8 2.1 -0.4 1.4 0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.1 0.058 1919 -2.2 -1.6 -1.7 -0.2 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.11 1920 0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.6 -0.6 -0.1 1 0.075 1921 1.5 0.7 % % % % 0.2 -0.8 0.4 1 0.6 0.8 % 1922 0.9 1 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.367 1923 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -2 -1.6 -0.7 -1.4 0.2 -0.36 1924 -0.7 0 0.2 -1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 1 0.8 0.7 1 0.4 0.358 1925 0.6 1.8 1.5 1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 -1.5 -1.1 -1.2 -0.23 1926 -1.9 -3.1 -2.7 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 -1.2 -2 -0.9 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -1.56 1927 0.5 -0.1 2 0.6 0.5 % % % 0 -0.6 -0.9 0.8 % 1928 -1.3 1.3 1.4 1 -0.2 -0.7 0 0.9 1 0.9 0.1 1.4 0.483 1929 1.9 2.3 0.5 0.3 -1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 1 0.6 0.542 1930 1.5 0.8 0 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.4 0.008 1931 0.9 -2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.9 % % % % % % 1932 % % % % % % % % -1.1 -0.6 -0.6 0.2 % 1933 -1.6 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.209 1934 0.7 0 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.8 0.2 -2.5 -0.7 0.3 1.1 -0.4 -0.06 1935 0.8 -0.7 1.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 -0.6 0.175 1936 -0.3 -0.1 0 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.3 -1 0.2 -0.1 -1.5 -0.1 -0.17 1937 1.1 -0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.6 0.025 1938 0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.3 1 1.3 1.8 1 0.9 1.3 0 1.6 0.825 1939 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 -1.1 -1.7 -1 -1.2 -0.01 1940 -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 -0.7 -1.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.9 -2 -1.9 -0.9 -2.6 -1.39 1941 -1.4 -2.2 -1.4 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -2 -2 -0.9 -2.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.43 1942 -1.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.9 0.7 -0.6 1.6 -0.02 1943 1.2 1.2 0.3 1 0.2 -0.7 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.2 -1.2 0.358 1944 -1.2 0.4 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 0.2 0.3 -1 -0.8 0.3 -0.26 1945 0.6 0.7 1.4 -0.5 0 0.5 0.3 1 0.9 0.1 -0.5 0.7 0.433 1946 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.6 -1.8 -1.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.75 1947 -0.7 -0.8 1.2 -0.4 -1.1 0.1 0.9 0.5 1.2 -0.3 0.7 0.5 0.15 1948 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 0.2 0.3 -0.5 0 -0.6 -0.9 0.5 0.2 -0.9 -0.28 1949 -1.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -1 -0.2 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.8 0.7 -0.18 1950 0.5 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.6 2 2 1.1 0.7 1.6 1 2.7 1.45 1951 1.7 0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -1 -0.3 -1.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -1 -1 -0.6 1952 -1.2 -1.1 0 -0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 -1.6 -0.3 1953 0.2 -1 -0.8 -0.1 -2.2 -0.3 -0.1 -1.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.75 1954 0.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.25 1955 -0.7 1.8 0.1 -0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1 0.908 1956 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 0 1.9 0.1 1 0.967 1957 0.6 -0.5 -0.4 0 -1 -0.2 0.1 -1 -1.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.45 1958 -2.3 -1 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.48 1959 -1.2 -2 0.9 0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 0 0.3 1 0.8 -0.12 1960 0 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.308 1961 -0.4 0.7 -2.7 0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 0.6 1.6 -0.03 1962 2.2 -0.7 -0.4 0 1 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.3 0 0.367 1963 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 -1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -1.6 -1 -1.6 -0.32 1964 -0.5 -0.3 0.7 1 -0.1 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 0 -0.5 0.425 1965 -0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 -1 -2.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.2 -1.8 0 -0.84 1966 -1.7 -0.7 -1.7 -0.5 -0.7 0 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -0.54 1967 1.9 1.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 0.292 1968 0.4 1.1 -0.5 -0.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0 0.183 1969 -2 -1.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -1.2 -1.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.69 1970 -1.4 -1.6 0 -0.4 0.1 0.7 -0.6 0.2 1.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 0.25 1971 0.3 1.9 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 0.5 0 1 1972 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.4 -2.1 -1.1 -1.9 -1 -1.6 -1.2 -0.5 -1.6 -0.84 1973 -0.5 -2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.6 2.9 2 0.583 1974 2.7 2 2.2 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.2 0.5 1.3 0.8 -0.3 0 1.017 1975 -0.8 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.9 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.3 1.283 1976 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 0.2 0.7 -0.6 0.083 1977 -0.7 1.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.3 -1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.03 1978 -0.4 -3.5 -0.8 -0.6 1.3 0.3 0.4 0 0 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -0.37 1979 -0.7 0.8 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -1 -0.11 1980 0.3 0 -1.2 -1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.38 1981 0.2 -0.6 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 1 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.7 0.1 0.5 0.025 1982 1.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.6 -1.9 -2.5 -2 -2.2 -3.2 -2.8 -1.32 1983 -4.2 -4.6 -3.4 -1.3 0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2 1 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -1.11 1984 0.1 0.6 -0.9 0.2 0 -0.8 0 0 0.1 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.13 1985 -0.5 1 0.2 1 0.2 -0.9 -0.3 0.7 0 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.042 1986 0.9 -1.6 0 0.1 -0.5 0.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 0.5 -1.5 -1.8 -0.32 1987 -0.9 -1.9 -2 -1.9 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 -0.7 -1.33 1988 -0.2 -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.725 1989 1.7 1.1 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.8 -0.8 0.6 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 0.567 1990 -0.2 -2.4 -1.2 0 1.1 0 0.5 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.39 1991 0.6 -0.1 -1.4 -1 -1.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -1.8 -1.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.95 1992 -3.4 -1.4 -3 -1.4 0 -1.2 -0.8 0 0 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.24 1993 -1.3 -2.3 % % % % % % % % % % % ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** EL NINO *** *** & *** *** THE CONSENTING CLIMATOLOGIST *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** In the winter of 1982-1983 the collective-we experienced one of the strongest El Nino events of record. All round the world weather that seemed locally strange was deemed "caused" by the El Nino. News was made everywhere. Little matter that the sample size (N) was 1.0! My favorite El Nino curse of that great global event was the single case of a bubonic plague "victim" in California that was blamed on the El Nino. Southern California was wetter than normal that winter and the ground squirrels had a splendid year. They were fruitful and multiplied. The resident flea of the ground squirrel also had a great year, I guess. Then one of those fleas laden with Yersina pestis found its unlucky victim. The rest is history. News was made. What fun we had that year. Card-carrying climatologists chuckled at the trench-coated reporters and the worried anchormen. Climatology had made it big. That year climate made both the National Inquirer and the New York Times. That is old hats now. We had thought that a climatological N was 30 years or so. We were liberated. N just didn't matter any more. We could think free. Cause and effect hasn't been the same since. It was the year that was in Climatology. Long-term, big-N, climate-ecosystem studies have since proved the reality important connections between El Nino dynamics and ecosystem behavior at many places greatly distant from the shore of Peru. ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *** *** EARLY HISTORY OF THE EL NINO *** *** *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** Credit for the El Nino goes locally to Peruvian Dr. Luis Scarranza, one time president of the Lima Geographic Society, and globally to Sir Gilbert Walker. The Brits sent some their best, in this case Walker, to the far East and to the far West. You can do that when you are perched on the prime meridian at Greenwich. By the way, the English are trying to find a buyer for the observatory at Greenwich. Privatization marches on. [Aside: Ms Thatcher has become the titular head of the College of Willima & Mary at Williamsburg, Virginia. We have long benefited from workers from the motherland.] Sir Gilbert proposed that there was a great atmospheric oscillation between the South Pacific and the Indian Ocean. He called it the Southern Oscillation (see data set above). When pressure was higher than normal in the South Pacific (Tahiti) it was lower than normal in the Indian Ocean (Darwin) and visa versa. The Southern Oscillation was found to be linked in time to a phenomena on the West Coast of South America called El Nino. We climatologists now boldly refer to the two events as one: ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation). Sir Gilbert also published his conclusion that there as a circum-equatorial circulation with rising motions over equatorial Africa, equatorial South America and the maritime continent (Indonesia and the many islands immediately to the East) and sinking motions in between. In the 1960s, this circumequatorial circulation was named the Walker Circulation. When I was taking my meteorological training in 1960s the Walker Circulation was to meteorology what George's voodoo was to Reganomics. Well, all the modern much-to-do about ENSO has rendered Sir Gilbert to the pantheon of mentionables in the history of meteorology. Sir Gilbert is in our good-graces now. Prior to this time, periodic and quasi-periodic variation in the atmosphere was restricted to the 24 hour cycle, the 365 day cycle and a hard won but soft belief in the Milankovitch cycles associated with the ice ages. The meteorologists could find little in between that made a difference. The El Nino, once it earned its way to the suitable-for-funding-class of attention-getters, fit in in-between these high and low frequency variations. These were heady days. Perhaps forecasts of some climate attributes could be predicted as much as a year ahead of time if ... if there was a way to predict when the next great ENSO would happen! ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *** *** EL NINO, WALKER & THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION *** *** *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** Near the end of each calendar year, along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, the coastal currents reverse. Southward flow along the coast replaces northward flow. Warm water replaces cold water. A chance of rain along the coastal deserts replaces little or no chance. Locals noted this annual happening during the Christmas season and called it "The Child"; in Spanish El Nino. This is the generic El Nino. It is an annual event. Every several years the warming is much greater in extent than its annual siblings but still is linked in time to the end of the calendar year. This is what we now call El Nino. Years without this big event are called La Nina. It is now widely held that El Nino has a global climate signature. It is the Christmas season that coincides with falling pressures in the Pacific (Tahiti) that is a candidate year for a major, non-generic El Nino. The period of the generic El Nino is 1 year. The period of the southern Oscillation is between 3 and 4 years and great El Ninos somewhere around, about or near every 7 years or so but not very constant and not really periodic and so prediction is not a given. When the El Nino is in effect deep convection of the atmosphere along the tropical Pacific is shifted from Indonesia to near the Dateline. This area of deep convection is part of a circumequatorial mode of atmospheric circulation called the Walker Circulation. The Walker Circulation is named (by Jacob Bjerknes M.W.R. 97:163-172) after Sir Gilbert Walker. The Walker circulation is a circumequatorial set of atmospheric motions with vertical motions in three regions. Heating over equatorial Africa, equatorial South America and over the maritime continent to the north of Queensland. Sinking motions are found between these regions of upward motions. In non-El Nino years the Equatorial Pacific Ocean center of upward motions is over the maritime continent around 150 degrees East Meridian. The more intense the El Nino the further east is this limb of the Walker Circulation. During an El Nino this center of convection is near the Dateline (180 E). ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *** *** DATELINE 180 E & 180 W *** *** *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** In El Nino years the Pacific ascending branch of the Walker Circulation is positioned near the International Dateline rather than over Indonesia. Vast quantities of water are lifted into the atmosphere. The fate of this flux of water vapor is upward, northward and eastward. [A film clip of this will be shown at the El Nino workshop in Estes Park.] This river of moist air, when present heads toward North America, crosses the western littoral over Baja California and turns eastward across Arizona, New Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Especially in the spring we see higher probabilities of rainfalls and higher total rainfalls. As far East as Key West (1835-1991) the El Nino gives rise to this spring time raininess. The best documented area for these spring rains is the American Southwest. Cliff Dahm and Manuel Molles (Sevilleta LTER) found that spring runoff was 6.0 to 7.4 times higher in El Nino years than in non-El Nino years. These increases resulted from a 2.1 to 2.8 increase in precipitation. In the American Southwest both rainfall events and the supply of atmospheric moisture for the rain can both be traced to events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. See: Molles, M.C. and C. N. Dahm (1990). J. N. Am. Benthol. Soc. 9(1):68-76. & Molles, M.C. and C. N. Dahm and M. T. Crocker (1992). In Aquatic Ecosystems in Semi-Arid Regions: Implications for Resource Management. R. D. Robarts and M. L. Bothwell (Eds.). NHRI Symposium Series 7, Environment Canada, Saskatoon. p. 197-202. & C. N. Dahm (1992). Stream in Semiarid Regions as Sensitive Indicators of Global Change. Ch. 12 in Global Warming and Freshwater Ecosystems. P. firth and S. G. Fisher (Eds.) Springer Verlag. p. 250-260. ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *** *** QUINN KEEPS THE FAITH *** *** from Cliff Dahm *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** Bill Quinn. served as my surrogate major professor when my advisor at Oregon State University, Kilho Park, left to work at NOAA. I see him occasionally and try to keep in touch via letter and phone. He is of the old school of science and e-mail, supercomputers, etc. aren't part of his toolkit. Bill became interested in the tropical Pacific during World War II. He was a weather analyst and forecaster in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. After the war he was assigned the position of chief climatologist based in Tokyo with responsibility for the Pacific and Far East. After the war he had added a M.S. degree in oceanography from Scripps to go along with his A.M. in geology and meteorology. He stayed active in the military until 1965 when he began his Ph.D. work at Oregon State University. His post-war military assignments included such interesting posts as stints at Cape Canaveral and meteorological support to the Presidential aircraft from 62-64. His research has always focused on the ENSO phenomenon. I vividly remember the first seminar of his I heard in the late seventies where he showed a strong correlation between the price of chickens in the U.S. and El Nino events. There was something a poor graduate student could relate to. Chicken feed was largely supplied by the fishery off the west coast of South America. he was already toying with ideas for predicting El Nino events based on a number of oceanographic and meteorological characteristics. Bill's most significant paper is probably the 450 year record of El Nino occurrences published in JGR. The paper was 10 years in the making. It involved translations of historical documents from five different languages. It is an impressive scholarly compilation. More recently, he has used the Nile River to extend his historical reconstruction back to 622 AD. He once told me that David of Biblical fame was a Nile-ometer reader for the pharaoh of Egypt and was therefore of great value. The record of the stage height of the Nile during flood stage goes back almost 4 millennia BC although the record is not continuous. Wars and stuff kept causing gaps so he only went back to 622 AD his latest paper in the Diaz and Markgraf book. I lied about his age in my earlier note. Bill turns 75 September 28. He is a remarkable man with a steely dedication to his area of science. I think he is rather enjoying the fact that there is now so much interest in the ENSO phenomenon. He remembers a time when only the people in western South America were really interested in what he did. QUINN-BIB: Quinn, W. H., D. O. Zoph, K. S. Short, and R. T. W. Kuo Yang. (1978). Historical trends and statistics of the Southern Oscillation, El Nino, and Indonesian droughts. Fish. Bull. 76:663-678. Quinn, W. H. (1972). Use of the Southern Oscillation in weather prediction. J. Appl. Meteorol. 11:616-628. Quinn, W. H. (1974). Monitoring and predicting El Nino invasions. J. Appl. Meteorol. 13:825-830. Quinn, W. H., V. T. Neal, and S. E. Antunez de Mayolo. (1987). El Nino over the past four and a half centuries. J. G. R. 92:14449-14461. Quinn, W. H. (1992). A study of Southern Oscillation-related climatic activity for A.D. 622-1990 incorporating Nile River flood data. In Diaz, H. F. and Markgraf, V. (eds.), El Nino: Historical and paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 293 pp. ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** *** *** ANCHOVIES, SOYBEANS AND CASHEWS *** *** *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** You are what you eat! This is almost a pre-New Age, New Age article of faith. Tell it to the chickens. For some decades anchovies have been chicken food. Somehow chickens eat anchovies and don't taste like it. Don't cash-in your quartz- crystal-in-distilled-water-amulet just yet. When El Nino gets bad with warm waters off Peru, the anchovies are elsewhere and you can't get them on the commercial conveyer belt to the chickens. Chickens got to eat so you feed them something else. In the U.S., our El Nino chicken feed is soybean meal. When the anchovies are not schooling along the Peruvian Coast our chickens eat soybean meal. With this extra demand, the soybeans cost more and fortunes are made in the commodities markets. Tofu costs more. Archer-Daniels-Midlands has a bigger cash flow. In Europe, when the El Nino deprives Euro-chickens of anchovies, the Euro-chicken eat cashews! Now, what I would like to know is why chicken is so cheap (sub-$ per lb) and yet they eat such expensive foods. You can't get anchovies and cashews for peanuts you know! I often thought that in order to wring dollars out of our pockets by selling expensive anchovies and cashews it was necessary to get rid anchovies and cashews in the fit-for-human-consumption market. Supply and Demand you know. ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** *** *** *** JUST ONE NON-EL NINO CONTRIBUTION *** *** aka *** *** CLIMATE, LIBERALISM AND INTOLERANCE *** *** *** ***************************************************************** ***************************************************************** I better start-off with the literature citation on this one. R. A. Beck (1993). Climate, Liberalism and Intolerance. Weather 48:63-64. For a long time now climatologists, from time to time, have slipped off the slippery slope of environmental determinism. Yale's Ellisworth Huntington in the 1930s took the biggest plunge of record. He could have won ABC "agony of defeat" award. Well there is a new, sort of self-nominated candidate. Self-nomination comes in the form of an article published in the British journal, Weather. If you think what follows is sort of self-praise in a nationalistic way -- well, right on. Beck's hypothesis is also his topic sentence in his paragraph 2: "Consider several cases of liberal tendencies in areas in mid-latitudes which have equable climate." To prove his point he creates a TD index. TD is the difference in the temperatures (C) of the hottest and coldest month. The lower the TD the more liberal a people are! Britain scores a very liberal 12! One nice pat on the back for Beck's fellow citizens. He notes how little support Fascism got in England and how they have become a multiracial society. He goes on to note that the greatest support for the Liberal Democrat Party came from the low TD areas of southwest England, western Scotland and the Scottish islands. He also notes that Laws of Jewish emancipation were written in countries with TDs in the 10 to 15 C range. Beck notes that Franco's homeland has a TD of 20! He praises New Zealand with its TD of 10; says nothing about Australia (it was the place for Beck's Liberal England dumped its convicts); and, has a liberal lust for San Francisco with it TD of 6! He notes the San Francisco is the "home of America's radical fringe." His list of places with intolerant acts include: Spain, Germany, Italy and Austria in the TD 20s; U. S. states with capital punishment have TDs in the 20s; and, the Mongol "wreakers of havoc" with a TD of 30! Clearly, it not the fault of the Khans, their environment made them do it. Peking has a TD of 31 and most of China has TDs in 20s. Beck notes that the TD versus liberalism rule has shortcomings in the low latitudes, i.e. it does not work. TDs are very low in equatorial regions. Samoza, Baby Doc, Idi and many other lovables come from places that put San Francisco to shame for its high TD of 6! Bob Waide's LTER site would score a nice 4.7 on the TD scaled. Luquillo is our most liberal LTER site. We all know that. Our Attila the Hun (406?-453 AD) award goes to Bonanza Creek but to no PI in particular. They are all sweetie-pies in the CED book. LIBERALISM INDEX FOR LTER SITES ANDREWS 18.0 ARCTIC TUNDRA 31.0 BONANAZA CREEK 42.0* OH, MY! CEDAR CREEK 34.6 CPR 24.7 In the Franco range. COWEET 18.5 DRY VALLEY ???? but a nice bunch people HARVARD FOREST 27.0* HUBBARAD BROOK 27.0* JORNADA 22.0 KELLOGG 24.0* KONZA 29.3 LUQUILLO 4.7* WOW! NIWOT 21.5 NORTH INLET 18.5 NTL 31.6 PALMER 17.0* SEVILLETA 22.0* VCR 21.3 ________________________________________________ * = eyeballed from Long-term Ecological Research in the United States: A Network of Research Sites. (1991) Sixth Edition Revised. LTER Publication No. 1. Network Office, Seattle, Washington. I have not taken the time to attach the Lead PI to this table. CED readers are quite capable of penciling in the names. I can't resist to ponder the fate of liberalism and global warming. IN a 2XCO2 world Winter temperatures get a lot warmer and the Summer temperatures just a fractdion warmer. That means that the TD index gets smaller! We will become more liberal as and if CO2 has its modeled effect. ----------------+--------------------------------+------------------------- Bruce P. Hayden | Dept. Environmental Sciences | bph@virginia.EDU (804) 924-0545 | Clark Hall, Univ. of Virginia | bph@virginia.BITNET (804) 924-7761 | Charlottesville, VA 22903 | (804) 982-2137(fax) ----------------+--------------------------------+-------------------------